Supercross San Diego Preview: Bring An Umbrella.The monkey wrenches continue to be thrown in the 2019 Monster Energy AMA Championship Series. It rained at the A1 opener, won by Justin Barcia, and it will almost certainly rain at San Diego’s Petco Park at race time on Saturday—the current prediction is a 98 percent chance of rain.
That means any predictions anyone has for the San Diego Supercross are pretty much null and void. Regardless, let’s take a look at where we are after four rounds.
1. Despite starting the season with 5-10 finishes, Cooper Webb will carry the red plate at Petco Park in San Diego. In a year where the top four preseason favorites (now down to three due to Jason Anderson’s broken arm) have yet to win a race, Webb’s pair of victories at the last two races puts him in the points lead. Don’t fit Webb (Red Bull KTM) for the crown just yet. He’s only two points ahead of Ken Roczen, three points ahead of Eli Tomac, and four points ahead of Marvin Musquin. They are nipping at his heels, but Webb has two consecutive wins and it is going to be a wet one in San Diego. Webb’s P5 finish in the A1 slop wasn’t bad.
2. Ken Roczen is moving in the wrong direction. Roczen’s season has gone 2-3-4-5, and it doesn’t take trigonometry to know what number is next in that sequence. Roczen (Team Honda HRC) ran the red plate at rounds three and four, but he lost it to Webb last week. Even though Roczen is running P2 in the points, he needs to turn things around. In his favor, he took P2 in the Anaheim 1 rain.
3. Marvin Musquin is moving in the right direction. Musquin (Red Bull KTM) started the season with a handicap—an injured knee. It appears to be healing, and Musquin has gone 8-5-2-2. While Musquin hasn’t quite looked like a winner yet, he’s definitely close. His P8 finish at A1 might make you think he’s not going to do well in the coming San Diego mud. However, that was when his knee was bothering him much more than it is now. Musquin could win at Petco Park.
4. After four rounds, Eli Tomac has finished no better than P3. His 3-4-3-4 season is consistent, but those are mediocre results for the rider many observers considered to be the preseason favorite after winning the 450 National title last year, along with $1 million at the Monster Energy Cup. Tomac (Monster Energy Kawasaki) had a win in one of the three Mains at the A2 Triple Crown, and he looked great taking that victory. For whatever reason, he hasn’t put it all together, but at least he hasn’t fallen apart. Tomac is just three points off the series lead.
5. If Justin Barcia’s tailbone is feeling better, he has to feel good about the San Diego forecast. Barcia (Monster Energy/Yamaha Factory Racing) won at the muddy opener and might repeat at San Diego in similar conditions. However, should his tailbone still be the source of significant pain, it could be a long Main for Barcia. He’s another great unknown this week.
6. Don’t count Dean Wilson out for a win at Petco Park. On his privateer bike, Wilson finished in P4 at Anaheim 1. The rain returns, and this time Wilson will be getting significant help from Rockstar Energy Husqvarna Factory Racing. It could be enough to boost him onto the podium, and it could result in Wilson’s first-ever 450SX Main win. We have already had two first-ever winners—Webb and Blake Baggett—and there is no reason that there can’t be another one this week.
7. If you play fantasy supercross, Blake Baggett is a leap of faith. This year, Baggett (Rocky Mountain ATV-MC/WPS/KTM) has gone 12-1-15-3 at the first four rounds. If Baggett keeps that pattern up, he won’t be in the top 10 at San Diego. Given that Baggett finished in P12 in the A1 rain, that’s probably not out of the question.
8. Keep an eye on Justin Bogle, as he may have figured out his last-minute ride. Filling in on the Rocky Mountain ATV-MC/WPS/KTM team after Benny Bloss tore his ACL has not been easy. Bogle went 19-15-17 in the first three rounds—not good. However, he grabbed P10 last week in Oakland, so he may have the setup on his KTM figured out. On the downside, Bogle was a P19 finisher at A1. Like Baggett, he is a tough one to call for fantasy supercross enthusiasts.
9. NBCSN will be airing the San Diego Supercross live on Saturday. That means 10 p.m. ET. If you have NBC Sports Gold, you can watch qualifying coverage—which is impressive—at 4 p.m. ET. The chance of rain during qualifying is about 80 percent, so you might get a good idea of how the Main is going to go. Oh, and don’t forget to bookmark our 2019 Supercross Television Schedule: Cable and Streaming.